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J. Korean Soc. Hazard Mitig. > Volume 19(3); 2019 > Article
산지방재
Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 2019;19(3):121-130.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2019.19.3.121    Published online June 30, 2019.
잣나무림의 산불연료량 예측을 위한 동적생장모델 개발
이선주1, 김성용2, 이병두3, 이영진4
1정회원, 공주대학교 산림자원학과 박사과정
2정회원, 국립산림과학원 산림방재연구과 박사
3정회원, 국립산림과학원 산림방재연구과 과장
4정회원, 공주대학교 산림자원학과 교수
A Dynamic Growth Model for Predicting Forest Fire Fuel Loads for Pinus Koraiensis Stands in South Korea
Sunjoo Lee1, Sungyong Kim2, Byungdoo Lee3, Young Jin Lee4
1Member, Ph.D. Student, Department of Forest Resources, Kongju National University
2Member, Ph.D., Junior Researcher, Division of Forest Disaster Management, National Institute of Forest Science
3Member, Ph.D., Division Director, Division of Forest Disaster Management, National Institute of Forest Science
4Member, Professor, Department of Forest Resources, Kongju National University
Corresponding author:  Young Jin Lee, Tel: +82-42-330-1313, Fax: +82-42-330-1308, 
Email: leeyj@kongju.ac.kr
Received: 1 April 2019   • Revised: 8 April 2019   • Accepted: 7 May 2019
Abstract
The objective of this study is to predict the effects of forest management activities on canopy fuel characteristics for Pinus koraiensis stands. We used data from 136 managed stands and 23 unmanaged stands of the National Forest Inventory for this study. Weibull function and mortality models were developed. A dynamic growth model in which models were interactively linked was prepared to predict stand growth and forest fuel loads after considering the mortality rate. As a result, after 20 years of managed stand data, the increase in available canopy fuel load was predicted to be about 12.8 ton/ha and increase in available canopy bulk density was predicted to be about 0.2kg/㎥. However, the increase in available canopy fuel load for unmanaged stands was about 15.2 ton/ha and the increase in available canopy bulk density was about 0.3 kg/㎥. These results showed that there were higher forest fuel loads in unmanaged stands than in managed stands. The risk of crown fire hazard is higher, and the forest fire hazard of unmanaged stands is judged to be higher than that of managed stands of Pinus koraiensis species in South Korea.
Key Words: Canopy Fuel Characteristics, Diameter Distribution, Mortality Models, Forest Management, Pinus Koraiensis
요지
본 연구는 산불에 취약한 대표 침엽수종인 잣나무 임분을 대상으로 산림시업이 수관연료특성 변화에 미치는 영향을 예측하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 국가산림자원조사 자료 중 산림시업지 잣나무림 136 plots, 비시업지 잣나무림 23 plots를 분석자료로 활용하였다. 시간이 경과됨에 따라 고사되는 임목의 특성을 고려하기 위해 Weibull 함수에 고사모델을 적용하여 임분특성별 산불연료량을 추정할 수 있는 동적생장 모델을 구축하였다. 그 결과, 시업지 임분의 20년 후 연소가능한 수관연료량 증가량은 약 12.8 ton/ha, 연소가능한 수관연료밀도는 약 0.2 kg/㎥로 예측된 반면, 비시업지 임분의 20년 후 연소가능한 수관연료량 증가량은 15.2 ton/ha, 연소가능한 수관연료밀도는 약 0.3 kg/㎥로 시업지 임분에 비해 비시업지 임분의 산불연료의 증가량이 높게 예측되었다. 따라서 비시업지 임분에서 산불확산 요소로 작용할 수 있는 산불 연료량 축적량이 더 높게 예측됨에 따라 수관화 확산 위험성이 더 높을 것으로 판단된다.
핵심용어: 수관연료특성, 직경분포, 고사모델, 산림시업, 잣나무


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