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Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 2010;10(1):81-88.
Published online February 28, 2010.
Synthetic Streamflow Generation Using Autoregressive Modeling in the Upper Nakdong River Basin
Synthetic Streamflow Generation Using Autoregressive Modeling in the Upper Nakdong River Basin
Christabel Jane P. Rubio, Kuk-Ryul Oh, Jae-H. Ryu, Sang-Man Jeong
Abstract
The analysis and synthesis of various types of hydrologic variables such as precipitation, surface runoff, and discharge are usually required in planning and management of water resources. These hydrologic variables are mostly represented using stochastic models. One of which is the autoregressive model, that gives promising results in time series modeling. This study is an application of this model, which aimed to determine the AR model that best represents the historical monthly streamflow of the two gauging stations, namely Andong Dam and Imha Dam, both located in the upper Nakdong River Basin. AR(3) model was found to be the best model for both gauging stations. Parameters of the determined order of AR model ($phi_1$, $phi_2$ and $phi_3$) were also estimated. Using several diagnostic tests, the efficiency of the determined AR(3) model was tested. These tests indicated the accuracy of the determined AR(3) model.
Key Words: Autoregressive Model; Time Series; Monthly Streamflow
요지
수자원의 관리 및 계획시 강우, 유출, 유량과 같이 다양한 종류에 의한 수문사상의 합성 및 분석이 요구된다. 다양한 수문사상들은 대부분 추계학적모형에 의한 해석이 필요하며, 이중 적절한 시계열모의결과를 나타낼 수 있는 자기회귀모형 적용을 시도하였다. 본 연구에서는 낙동강 상류에 위치한 안동댐과 임하댐 두 관측소의 월유출량 자료를 이용하여 최적의 자기회귀모형을 검토하였으며, 분석결과 AR(3) 모형의 매개변수($phi_1$, $phi_2$, and $phi_3$)가 가장 적합한 것으로 나타났으며, 다양한 분석 및 평가결과 AR(3)모형이 효과적이고 정확한 것으로 나타났다.
핵심용어: 자기회귀모형; 시계열; 월유출량


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