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Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 2012;12(3):307-307.
Published online June 30, 2012.
홍수방재능력 향상을 위한 채택 가능한 설계 극한강우량의 결정
조덕준, 이나은, 전병훈, 강두기
A Determination of the Acceptable Design Extreme Rainfall for the Improvement of Flood Disaster Prevention Ability
Deok Jun Jo, Na Eun Lee, Byeong Hoon Jeon, Doo Kee Kang
In recent years, as the occurrence of torrential rainfall in urban area which caused by global climate change has increased, the flood damage also has increased. It`s because careful consideration of increase tendency for rainfall wasn`t given to the hydraulic structure design standard and the occurrence of rainfall which exceed the design probability rainfall has actually increased. This paper suggests the regression equation which presents the extreme rainfall value in a probability function. The regression equation is made from the observed data and it can be used in design. As a result of the research, it is possible to apply the regression equation to disaster safety assessment of extreme rainfall when the hydraulic structures are designed.
Key Words: Probability rainfall; Exceeded probability rainfall; Design extreme rainfall; Flood disaster prevention
최근 지구의 기후변화로부터 발생된다고 추정되고 있는 도시지역의 극한호우의 증가로 홍수 피해가 늘어나고 있다. 이것은 수공구조물의 설계기준에 강우량의 증가추이에 대한 고려가 미흡하였고, 실제로 설계확률강우량을 초과하는 강우의 발생이 증가하기 때문으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서는 관측강우자료로부터 확률강우량을 초과하여 발생한 강우사상을 극한강우로 정의하고, 극한강우들에 대한 확률밀도함수로부터 설계에 고려할 수 있는 극한강우의 누가발생확률을 나타내는 회귀식을 제시하였다. 작성된 극한호우의 확률 회귀식은 수공구조물의 설계단계에서 극한호우에 대한 방재안전성평가 등에 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.
핵심용어: 확률강우량; 초과확률강우량; 설계극한강우량; 홍수방재


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