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Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 2015;15(4):59-70.
Published online August 31, 2015.
지역기후모형별 일 강수자료의 정략적 특성과 공간분포 경향
김정호, 박무종, 주진걸
Comparison of Characteristics and Spatial Distribution Tendency of Daily Precipitation based on the Regional Climate Models for the Korean Peninsula
Jungho Kim, Moojong Park, Jingul Joo
Abstract
This study compares the quantitative characteristics and the spatial distribution tendency of daily precipitation data depending on the regional climate models based on the HadGEM2-AO (coupled atmosphere ocean model of Hadley centre global environmental model version 2) and RCP 4.5/8.5 scenarios. For this purpose, HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, SNURCM, GRIMs, and WRF models were used to make the climate change ensemble scenario data for 2021~2090 years. According to the results from the quantitative comparisons in this study, it is found that the difference of amount of precipitation, the number of days with precipitation, and daily maximum pre-cipitation are obviously different depending on the regional climate models. When considering time series of years, an average dif-ference among the regional climate models dominantly affects overall time series trend in terms of annual precipitation, annual number of days, and average daily precipitation. In the results of spatial distribution tendency, the trend is decided by amount of daily precipitation forecasted in both area of east coast and of south coast, also, the characteristics of the regional climate models could be classified by spatial distribution tendency of the regional climate models.
Key Words: Climate change; RCP scenario; regional climate model; daily precipitation
요지
본 연구에서는 RCP 4.5/8.5 시나리오와 전 지구 대기-해양-수문-에어로솔 결합모형인 HadGEM2-AO을 기반으로 전망된 일 강수자료 의 정량적 특성과 공간분포 경향을 지역기후모형에 따라 비교·검토하였다. 2021~2090년을 대상으로 HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, SNURCM, GRIMs, WRF 등 총 5개의 지역기후모형의 일 강수자료를 활용하였다. 전망결과의 정량적인 비교를 통해 강수량, 강수일 수, 일 최대 강수량 등에서 지역기후모형간의 전망특성 차이를 확인하였다. 경년변동에 따른 지역기후모형간의 평균적인 차이가 명확 하였으며, 이 같은 차이는 전망경향 전반에 걸쳐 나타났다. 지역기후모형별 공간분포는 동해안과 남해안 지역에 전망된 일강수의 규모에 따라 큰 차이를 보였으며, 정량적인 측면에서도 모형간의 차이가 지역적으로 두드러지게 나타나 적용된 지역기후모형별 특성 분류가 가능하였다.
핵심용어: 기후변화; RCP 시나리오; 지역기후모형; 일 강수


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