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Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 2015;15(4):71-77.
Published online August 31, 2015.
1990년 이후 강원 영동지역 산불 변화 특성
김승수, 이명욱, 이종호
Characteristics of Forest Fires at Yeongdong in Gangwondo since 1990s
Myung Woog Lee,, Jong Ho Lee,
Abstract
The incidence and the area of forest fires at Yeongdong in Gangwon-do were increased in 2000s compared to 1990s. However, few research have tried the increase of forest fires depending on the effect of the variation of weather on meteorological factor. Precip-itation, duration of precipitation, and relative humidity at Yeongdong were decreased during warning period of forest fires in 2000s, whereas mean temperature and days of minimum humidity were increased, and days of precipitation and mean wind velocity did not much change. To see the effect of the incidence of forest fires, multiple regression analysis was applied for dependent variable (occur-rences and area of forest fires) and independent variable (precipitation, duration of precipitation, relative humidity, days of minimum humidity, mean temperature and mean wind velocity). The analysis results showed that the incidence of forest fire was highly affected by days of minimum humidity and mean wind velocity, and the area of forest fire was affected by mean wind velocity.
Key Words: Forest fire; Warning period of forest fire; Days of minimum humidity; Mean wind velocity; Multiple regression analysis
요지
강원도 영동지역은 '90년대에 비해 2000년대에 산불발생건수와 피해면적이 많이 증가하였다. 그러나 기후변화에 따라 변화하는 기상 인자를 산불과 비교분석한 연구는 많지 않다. 영동지역의 산불조심기간 중 기후분석 결과 '90년대에 비해 2000년대의 강수량. 강수계속시간, 상대습도는 감소하였고 평균기온과 최소습도일수는 증가하였으며 강수일수와 평균풍속은 큰 변화가 없는 것으로 분석되었다. 이러한 기후변화가 산불에 미치는 영향을 알아보고자 1991년-2009년에 발생된 산불발생건수와 피해면적을 종속변수로 기상인자인 강수량, 강수일수, 상대습도, 최소습도일수, 평균기온, 평균풍속을 독립변수로 하는 다중회귀분석을 실시하였다. 산불발생건수는 최소습 도일수와 평균풍속이 가장 큰 영향인자로 나타났으며 산불피해면적은 평균풍속이 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다.
핵심용어: 산불; 산불조심기간; 최소습도일수; 평균풍속; 다중회귀분석


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