J. Korean Soc. Hazard Mitig Search

CLOSE


J. Korean Soc. Hazard Mitig. > Volume 18(7); 2018 > Article
기상방재
Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 2018;18(7):61-69.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2018.18.7.61    Published online December 31, 2018.
혼합분포형을 이용한 한국의 연최대 풍속 분석
신주영1, 안현준2, 정창삼3, 안정환4
1정회원, 국립기상과학원 응용기상연구과 연구원
2연세대학교 일반대학원 토목환경공학과 석·박통합과정
3정회원, 인덕대학교 토목공학과 교수
4인덕대학교 토목공학과 연구원
Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum Wind Speed in Korea using Mixture Distribution
Ju-Young Shin1, Hyunjun Ahn2, Changsam Jeong3, Jeonghwan Ahn4
1Member, Researhcer, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences
2Ph.D Candidate, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University
3Member, Professor, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Induk University
4Researcher, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Induk University
Corresponding author:  Changsam Jeong, Tel: +82-2-950-7567, Fax: +82-2-950-7579, 
Email: csjeong@korea.com
Received: 22 October 2018   • Revised: 24 October 2018   • Accepted: 13 November 2018
Abstract
Recently, many studies on wind speed frequency analysis reported that mixture distribution is appropriate for the distribution of wind speed data. Since the annual maximum wind speed data are a subsample of wind speed data, the characteristics of the annual maximum wind speed data are highly likely related to those of wind speed data. Hence, in this study, the fit of mixture distribution for annual maximum wind speed data measured in Korea was assessed. A two-component Gumbel mixture distribution was employed, and an expectation-maximization algorithm was used as fitting method. The fit of the mixture distribution was compared with those of the Gumbel, Weibull, Generalized Extreme Value, and Kappa distributions, based on several goodness-of-fit measurements. The results show that the fit of the mixture distribution for the annual maximum wind speed in Korea was superior to the fits of other distributions. Additionally, the mixture distribution led to good fits also at those stations where it was not selected as the most appropriate distribution.
Key Words: Annual Maximum Wind Speed, Mixture Distribution, Probability Distribution, Expectation-Maximization Algorithm, Frequency Analysis
요지
최근 풍속자료의 빈도해석 연구에서 풍속자료의 분포형으로 혼합확률분포이 적합하다는 결과가 보고되고 있다. 연 최대 풍속자료는 풍속자료 중에서 연 최대 값을 뽑아 낸 자료로, 풍속자료의 특성에 따라 연 최대 풍속자료의 특성이 결정될 가능성이 높다. 그래서, 본 연구에서는 국내 연 최대 풍속자료에 대한 혼합분포형의 적합성을 평가였다. 혼합분포형으로는 Gumbel 분포형을 두 개를 합성한 분포형을 사용하였고, 혼합분포형의 매개변수를 추정하기 위해서, expectation-maximization 알고리즘을 적용하였다. 추정된 혼합분포형은 다양한 적합도 평가 기준을 토대로 Gumbel, Weibul, Generalized Extreme Value, Kappa 분포형과 국내 풍속자료에 대한 적합도를 비교하였다. 평가결과, 혼합분포형이 극치 분석에 사용되는 분포형들보다 국내 연 최대 풍속자료에 적합한 것으로 나타났고, 혼합분포모형이 최적분포형으로 선정되지 않은 지점에서도 높은 적합도를 보이는 것으로 확인하였다.
핵심용어: 연 최대 풍속, 혼합분포형, 확률분포형, Expectation-Maximization 알고리즘, 빈도해석


ABOUT
ARTICLE CATEGORY

Browse all articles >

BROWSE ARTICLES
AUTHOR INFORMATION
Editorial Office
307 Main Bldg., The Korea Science Technology Center, 22 Teheran-ro 7-gil(635-4 Yeoksam-dong), Gangnam-gu, Seoul 06130, Korea
Tel: +82-2-567-6311    Fax: +82-2-567-6313    E-mail: master@kosham.or.kr                

Copyright © 2019 by The Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation. All rights reserved.

Developed in M2community

Close layer
prev next