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J. Korean Soc. Hazard Mitig. > Volume 18(7); 2018 > Article
환경방재
Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 2018;18(7):631-638.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2018.18.7.631    Published online December 31, 2018.
POT 방법을 이용한 극치 해수위의 비정상성 빈도해석
정병순1, 이옥정2, 김경민3, 김상단4
1정회원, (주)해강기술, 연안항만부 상무
2정회원, 부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부, 박사과정
3정회원, 부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부, 석사과정
4정회원, 부경대학교 환경공학과 교수
Non-stationary Frequency Analysis of Extreme Sea Level Using POT Approach
Byungsoon Jung1, Okjeong Lee2, Kyungmin Kim3, Sangdan Kim4
1Member, CTO, Sea & River Technology
2Member, Ph.D. Student, Division of Earth Environmental System Science, Pukyong National University
3Member, Master Course Student, Division of Earth Environmental System Science, Pukyong National University
4Member, Professor, Department of Environmental Engineering, Pukyong National University
Corresponding author:  Sangdan Kim, Tel: +82-51-629-6529, Fax: +82-51-629-6523, 
Email: skim@pknu.ac.kr
Received: 5 November 2018   • Revised: 6 November 2018   • Accepted: 15 November 2018
Abstract
In this study, frequency analysis based on the Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) method was performed to reflect the non-stationarity of extreme sea level. Of the parameters of the general Pareto distribution (GPD), the scale parameter was considered as a time-dependent function. The Busan site was selected as a study site, and sea level data from 1976 to 2015 (40 years) were collected at 1-hour intervals. The threshold value of the POT time series was determined to obtain extreme sea level estimates as close to those calculated by the generalized extreme value distribution based on the annual maximum time series. By comparing the stationary GPD model with the non-stationary GPD model, it was determined that the estimate of the extreme sea level for the 50-year return period is likely to be increased by approximately 83 cm in 2055.
Key Words: Extreme Sea Level, Generalized Pareto Distribution, Peak-over-threshold, Non-stationary Frequency Analysis
요지
본 연구에서는 극치 해수위의 비정상성을 반영하기 위하여 Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) 방법에 기초한 빈도해석이 수행되었다. 일반 Pareto 분포(GPD)의 매개변수들 중에서 규모 매개변수가 시간 의존적인 함수로 고려되었다. 부산지점이 연구대상지점으로 선정되었으며, 1976년부터 2015년까지 40년 동안 1시간 단위로 정리된 해수위 자료가 이용되었다. 연 최대치 시계열에 기초한 일반 극치 분포에 의해 추정된 재현기간별 극치 해수위 추정 값과 가장 유사한 결과를 얻을 수 있도록 POT 시계열의 임계값이 결정되었다. 정상성 GPD 모델과 비정상성 GPD 모델을 비교한 결과, 2055년에는 현재보다 재현기간 50년 극치 해수위 추정 값이 83 cm 정도 상승할 가능성이 많은 것으로 분석되었다.
핵심용어: 극치 해수위, Generalized Pareto 분포, Peak-over-threshold, 비정상성빈도해석


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