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J. Korean Soc. Hazard Mitig. > Volume 19(1); 2019 > Article
Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 2019;19(1):373-382.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2019.19.1.373    Published online February 28, 2019.
통계학적 가능최대강수량의 재현기간 추정
심인경1, 이옥정2, 정상만3, 김상단4
1정회원, 부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부 석사과정
2정회원, 부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부 환경공학전공 박사과정
3정회원, 공주대학교 건설환경공학부 교수
4정회원, 부경대학교 환경공학과 교수
Estimating the Return Period for Statistical Probable Maximum Precipitation
Inkyeong Sim1, Okjeong Lee2, Sangman Jeong3, Sangdan Kim4
1Member, Master Course Student, Division of Earth Environmental System Science, Pukyong National University
2Member, Ph.D. Student, Division of Earth Environmental System Science (Major of Environmental Engineering), Pukyong National University
3Member, Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kongju National University
4Member, Professor, Department of Environmental Engineering, Pukyong National University
Corresponding author:  Sangdan Kim, Tel: +82-51-629-6529, Fax: +82-51-629-6523, 
Email: skim@pknu.ac.kr
Received: 16 October 2018   • Revised: 17 October 2018   • Accepted: 6 November 2018
This study proposes a simple alternative to statistically estimate the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). The PMP is the upper limit of physical rainfall depth and is contradictory to the concept of probability. However, since the upper limit of physical rainfall depth cannot be identified clearly from observed data, it was judged that making a probabilistic estimation of PMP might be reasonable. Hershfield's km, calculated from the daily rainfall depth recorded at 80 stations of the Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) with more than 10 years of observations, was fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution with a shape parameter given as a linear function of the average of the annual maximum of the time series at each observation site. Data from the oldest 15 sites in Korea (1961-2017, 57 years) were used to verify the methodology suggested in this study. Hershfield's statistical PMPs and the hydro-meteorological PMPs were somewhat different; however, the return period for the PMPs in terms of daily rainfall depth was estimated to be approximately 20,000,000 years at all sites studied.
Key Words: Frequency Analysis, Hershfield, Probable Maximum Precipitation, Return Period
본 연구에서는 가능최대강수량(Probable Maximum Precipitation, PMP)을 통계학적으로 추정하는 간단한 대안이 제시된다. PMP는 물리적인 강우량 상한계로, 확률론적 개념과는 모순적이지만, 관측자료로부터는 물리적인 강우량의 상한계를 명확하게 규정할 수 없기 때문에, PMP를 확률론적으로 구하는 방법이 합리적일 수도 있다고 판단하였다. 10년 이상의 관측자료를 보유한 기상청 ASOS 80개 지점의 일 강우량 자료를 이용하여 산출한 Hershfield의  은 각 관측 지점의 연 최대 시계열의 평균의 선형함수로 주어지는 형상 매개변수를 가지는 GEV 분포에 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 본 연구의 방법을 검증하기 위하여 우리나라에서 가장 오래된 15개 지점 자료(1961-2017, 57년)가 이용되었다. Hershfield의 통계학적 PMP와 수문기상학적인 PMP는 지점별로 다소 상이하였으나, 적용된 지점들 모두에서 일 강우량 PMP의 재현기간은 대략 20,000,000년인 것으로 추정되었다.
핵심용어: 빈도해석, Hershfield, 가능최대강수량, 재현기간


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