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J. Korean Soc. Hazard Mitig. > Volume 19(7); 2019 > Article
기상방재
Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 2019;19(7):63-76.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2019.19.7.63    Published online December 31, 2019.
지역특성을 고려한 강우 앙상블 멤버 생성 기법 제안
강민석1, 나우영2, 유철상3
1정회원, 고려대학교 건축사회환경공학과 박사과정
2정회원, 고려대학교 건축사회환경공학과 박사과정
3정회원, 고려대학교 건축사회환경공학과 교수
Rainfall Ensemble Member-Generation Method Accounting for Regional Characteristics
Minseok Kang1, Wooyoung Na2, Chulsang Yoo3
1Member, Ph.D. Candidate. School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, College of Engineering, Korea University
2Member, Ph.D. Candidate. School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, College of Engineering, Korea University
3Member, Professor, School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, College of Engineering, Korea University
Corresponding author:  Chulsang Yoo, Tel: +82-2-3290-3321, Fax: +82-2-3290-3912, 
Email: envchul@korea.ac.kr
Received: 3 September 2019   • Revised: 4 September 2019   • Accepted: 10 October 2019
Abstract
This paper proposes a method for generating rainfall ensemble members by considering regional characteristics. The movement directions of storms (characteristic direction) and spatial distribution of rainfall intensity (rainfall-intensity weight) are considered as the regional characteristics. As a case study, grids for the ensemble simulation are set in Seoul, Korea, where the rain-gauge density is quite high. The characteristic direction and rainfall-intensity weight of each grid are determined based on observations of major storm events that occurred in Seoul during the last 10 years. The rainfall ensemble members are generated by considering the characteristic directions quantified using the beta distribution. A total of 100 rainfall ensemble members are generated by repeating the simulation of the storm movement. The result from the simple average of these ensemble members is considered as the ensemble mean. The rainfall ensemble members and ensemble mean are evaluated based on the rainfall-intensity weights. The rainfall ensemble members generated using various types of rainfall fields are found to be very similar to the spatial distribution of the rainfall-intensity weights. The ensemble mean is also found to exhibit average characteristics of the rainfall ensemble members. The same results are also derived from the simulation of the storm event that occurred in 2018.
Key Words: Regional Characteristics, Rainfall Ensemble, Characteristic Direction, Rainfall Intensity Weight, Beta Distribution
요지
본 연구에서는 지역적인 특성을 고려하여 강우 앙상블 멤버를 생성하는 기법을 제안하였다. 지역특성으로는 강우의 이동방향과 강우강도의 공간적 분포를 고려하였다. 본 연구에서는 적용 사례로 지상우량계의 분포밀도가 조밀한 서울특별시에 대해 모의 격자망을 구축하고, 앙상블 기법을 적용하였다. 격자별 특성방향과 강우강도 가중치는 최근 10년 동안 발생한 주요 호우사상의 관측자료를 토대로 결정하였다. 앙상블 멤버는 특성방향의 통계치로부터 유도된 베타분포를 기반으로 생성하였다. 강우의 이동모의를 100회 수행하면 총 100개의 앙상블 멤버가 생성되고, 이 앙상블 멤버들을 단순평균한 결과가 앙상블 평균이 된다. 생성된 앙상블 멤버와 강우 앙상블 평균에 대한 평가는 강우강도 가중치를 기준으로 수행되었다. 여러 형태의 가상의 강우장을 입력하여 생성한 앙상블 멤버는 강우강도 가중치의 공간적 분포와 상당히 유사함을 확인하였다. 또한, 강우 앙상블 평균은 강우 앙상블 멤버들의 평균적인 특성을 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 2018년에 발생한 실제 호우사상을 입력한 경우에서도 확인할 수 있었다.
핵심용어: 지역특성, 강우 앙상블, 특성방향, 강우강도 가중치, 베타분포


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