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J. Korean Soc. Hazard Mitig. > Volume 19(7); 2019 > Article
하천방재
Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 2019;19(7):529-543.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2019.19.7.529    Published online December 31, 2019.
실제 물이용 체계를 고려한 한강 동해 권역 물수급 평가
오지환1, 류경식2, 복정수3, 장연석4, 배영대5, 이봉국6
1정회원, K-water연구원 물순환연구소 위촉연구원
2정회원, K-water연구원 물순환연구소 책임연구원
3K-water 물관리기획처 물수요공급예측센터 과장
4K-water 물관리기획처 물수요공급예측센터 차장
5K-water 물관리기획처 물수요공급예측센터 센터장
6K-water 물관리기획처 물수요공급예측센터 대리
Water Supply-and-Demand Analysis Considering the Actual Water-Use System in the East Basin of Han River
Ji-Hwan Oh1, Kyong Sik Ryu2, Jung Soo Bok3, Yeon Seok Jang4, Yeong Dae Bae5, Bong Guk Lee6
1Member, Researcher, Water Resources Research Center, K-water Research Institute
2Member, Principal Researcher, Water Resources Research Center, K-water Research Institute
3Manager, Water Resources Management Research & Planning Dept., Water Supply and Demand Prediction Center, K-water
4Senior Manager, Water Resources Management Research & Planning Dept., Water Supply and Demand Prediction Center, K-water
5General Manager, Water Resources Management Research & Planning Dept., Water Supply and Demand Prediction Center, K-water
6Manager, Water Resources Management Research & Planning Dept., Water Supply and Demand Prediction Center, K-water
Corresponding author:  Kyong Sik Ryu, Tel: +82-42-870-7472, Fax: +82-42-870-7472, 
Email: ksryoo@kwater.or.kr
Received: 2 October 2019   • Revised: 2 October 2019   • Accepted: 15 October 2019
Abstract
Korea has assessed its water supply-and-demand system to change, develop, and allocate water resources. This study confirmed the current problems in water supply-and-demand analysis and the need for improvement suggested by previous studies. By considering these problems and the proposed improvement, we developed a water supply-and-demand analysis system that takes the actual water-use system into account and quantifies the resulting water shortage in each administrative district. The spatial-unit analysis was subdivided into standard hydrologic watershed units in the East Sea region of the Han River, where water management was relatively weak, and the distortion was minimized by directly reflecting the basic unit of water demand for each type using the MODSIM model. In addition, the regional sources for water supply, such as water facilities and groundwater use, were directly reflected in the model. As a result, we discovered the possibility of water shortage in administrative district units that was not identified by the existing analysis system. In particular, the water-shortage problem that occurred in Gangneung-si and Sokcho-si was indirectly expressed by our method. Improved specific and realistic water-resource planning can possibly be realized by using the method developed in this study rather than the existing method.
Key Words: Water Supply and Demand System, Water Shortage, Water Resources Planning, MODSIM
요지
우리나라는 수자원의 여건 변화와 개발 및 공급, 적절한 배분 및 이용을 위해 물수급 평가를 수행해왔다. 이에 본 연구에서는 현재 물수급 분석에 대한 문제점과 선행 연구에서 제시한 개선 사항을 파악하고, MODSIM 모형을 활용하여 실제 물이용체계를 고려한 물수급 분석 체계를 구축하였으며, 행정구역 단위의 물 부족 결과를 제시하였다. 이에 물 관리가 상대적으로 취약한 한강 동해 권역을 대상으로 분석 공간 단위를 표준유역단위로 세분화하고, 용도별 용수수요량의 기초 단위를 적용하여 왜곡을 최소화하였다. 또한 수자원시설물, 지하수이용 등 지역공급원을 모형 내 일부 직접 반영하고, 하수처리장 정보를 이용한 회귀지점을 고려하여 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 기존의 분석 방식에서는 확인하기 어려웠던 행정구역 단위의 물 부족 표출 가능성을 확인하였고, 특히 최근 가뭄 상황이 발생했던 강릉시, 속초시에 대한 물 부족을 확인하였다. 본 연구에서 제안한 방법은 더 현실적인 물수급 분석이 될 것으로 기대된다.
핵심용어: 물수급 분석, 가뭄, 물 부족, MODSIM
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