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J. Korean Soc. Hazard Mitig. > Volume 19(1); 2019 > Article
기상방재
Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 2019;19(1):35-44.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2019.19.1.35    Published online February 28, 2019.
레이더 강우량의 불확실성 수준 평가: 미국사례와의 비교 분석을 중심으로
노희성1, 이동률2, 황석환3, 강나래4
1정회원, 한국건설기술연구원 국토보전연구본부 수석연구원
2정회원, 한국건설기술연구원 국토보전연구본부 선임연구위원
3정회원, 한국건설기술연구원 국토보전연구본부 수석연구원
4정회원, 한국건설기술연구원 국토보전연구본부 수석연구원
Evaluation of the Uncertainty Level in Radar-Rainfall Technology in Korea: Focus on Comparative Analysis with the United States
Huiseong Noh1, Dongryul Lee2, Sukhwan Hwang3, Narae Kang4
1Member, Senior Researcher, Department of Land, Water and Environment Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology (KICT)
2Member, Senior Research Fellow, Department of Land, Water and Environment Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology (KICT)
3Member, Senior Researcher, Department of Land, Water and Environment Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology (KICT)
4Member, Senior Researcher, Department of Land, Water and Environment Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology (KICT)
Corresponding author:  Huiseong Noh, Tel: +82-31-910-0548, Fax: +82-31-910-0100, 
Email: huiseongnoh@kict.re.kr
Received: 12 July 2018   • Revised: 19 July 2018   • Accepted: 27 July 2018
Abstract
Although there have been significant technological advances in radar technology in terms of electronics and computation, the impacts of overall radar-rainfall uncertainty, its factors, and the methods of its evaluation have not been presented clearly. Hence, this study estimated the radar rainfall for each radar-rainfall estimation algorithm (R(ZH), R(ZH, ZDR), R(JPL)) using data from the Biseulsan Rainfall Radar System (dual-polarization radar), which was first introduced in Korea. Then, this study compared the result with ground observation rainfall using radar performance statistical indicators and analyzed them. According to the result, the R(ZH, ZDR) algorithm sensitively reacted to the bias of differential refletivity (ZDR), an observation variable, which caused large variation in instrumental observation errors. When the composite algorithm (R(JPL)) was applied, most of the radar performance statistical indicators were improved, which demonstrated the effectiveness of the estimation variable from the dual-polarization radar. However, it was also found that it is necessary to develop algorithms and variable test methods suitable for the observation characteristics of Korean rainfall radars. In addition, the results of study were compared with those of previous studies in the United States and then reviewed to assess the level of Korean technology for uncertainty of rainfall data from the radar. The results showed a large spatial variability in data from the Korean radar in comparison to the results from the previous U.S. studies; there was also an improvement in the uncertainty of the radar-rainfall estimation. Therefore, the results of this study can be important for establishing the evaluation criteria regarding the uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimation and for contributing to the improvement in the uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimation.
Key Words: Quantitative Radar-rainfall Estimation, Radar-rainfall Uncertainties, Radar Technical Level
요지
레이더기술에 있어 전자, 전산 등의 측면에서 상당한 기술진보가 이루어졌음에도 불구하고 아직까지 총체적인 레이더강수 불확실성의 영향과 요인, 평가방법에 대한 명확한 결과 제시가 이루어지지 않고 있다. 본 연구에서는 국내 최초 도입된 비슬산 강우레이더시스템(이중 편파) 자료를 이용하여 레이더강수 추정 알고리즘별(R(ZH), R(ZH, ZDR), R(JPL)) 레이더강수량을 산정한 후 지상관측 강우량과 레이더성능 통계 지표를 이용하여 비교⋅분석하였다. R(ZH, ZDR)은 관측변수인 차등반사도(ZDR)의 편의에 민감하게 반응하여 기기적인 관측오차의 변동이 크게 나타났다. 복합 알고리즘(R(JPL))을 적용한 경우 대부분의 레이더성능 통계지표에서 더 나은 값을 보여 이중편파레이더 산출변수의 효용성을 보여주었으나, 국내 강우레이더 관측 특성에 적합한 알고리즘 및 변수 검정 방법 개발이 필요함을 확인하였다. 또한, 레이더강수 자료의 불확실성에 대한 국내 기술수준 평가를 위해 미국의 선행연구와 본 연구를 비교⋅검토한 결과, 미국의 선행연구에 비해 국내 레이더자료의 공간 변동성이 크게 나타났으며 이중편파레이더 산출변수를 이용한 레이더강수 추정 값에서는 불확실성 측면에서 향상됨을 보였다. 본 연구결과는 레이더강수 추정 불확실성 평가를 위한 기준을 마련하고, 레이더강수 추정 불확실성을 개선하는데 중요한 자료가 될 수 있을 것이다.
핵심용어: 정량적 레이더강우 추정, 레이더강우 불확실성, 강우레이더 기술수준
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